ChatGPT Search (CGS) is a landmark launch within the shift from conventional to AI Search.
Now, OpenAI competes with Google (Search) heads-on. Notice the delicate elbow hit between the traces within the announcement:
Getting helpful solutions on the net can take a number of effort. It usually requires a number of searches and digging by means of hyperlinks to seek out high quality sources and the proper data for you.
The positioning is clear: ChatGPT Search is a way to get a straight answer without digging through cluttered search results or browsing websites.
CGS, which is directly integrated with ChatGPT instead of a standalone search engine, decides whether a query benefits from web results or not, and you can rerun queries through other models like o1 preview to compare the answers:
ChatGPT will choose to search the web based on what you ask, or you can manually choose to search by clicking the web search icon.
It keeps the context of your search going in a conversation interface (bolding from me):
Go deeper with follow-up questions, and ChatGPT will consider the full context of your chat to get a better answer for you.
OpenAI has a strategic advantage, as I explained in Search GPT:
The Info reviews that OpenAI loses $5 billion a 12 months in bills. Just capturing 3% of Google’s $175 billion Search business would allow OpenAI to recoup expenses.
OpenAI has a strategic advantage over Google: Search GPT can provide a very different, maybe less noisy, user experience than Google because it’s not reliant on ad revenue. In any decision regarding Search, Google needs to take ads into account.
CGS marks the entry to a new paradigm where traditional search engines like Google or Bing compete with AI chatbots.
They solve the same problems for users as search engines but with lower friction. But it also marks a critical event that should lead you to evaluate your strategy.
Companies face a choice to invest and “be early” to AI Search or ignore the noise and stay the course. What makes this decision hard:
- Divided opinions about Chat GPT’s chance to take significant market share from Google.
- Rapidly changing mechanisms of AI Search platforms.
- Confusion about what to do.
The first search engines didn’t represent the model (Google) that eventually won.
In the same vein, the AI Search experience we’re seeing today might be completely different in a few years. However, there is little doubt that search is fundamentally changing.
As a result, my recommendation is to invest in AI Search. It is not capital-intensive (yet), but the upside to finding a playbook is high.
If CGS grabs significant Google market share, you’re in a good position. If it fails, no harm is done.
Collision Course
Based on recent traffic trends, ChatGPT could catch up to Google in 2 years. (Image Credit: Kevin Indig)In the chart above, I extrapolated ChatGPT’s and Google’s total traffic over the next two years if the trend from the last six months remains constant.
This chart will probably outrage or scare you, but the chance that events unfold exactly as depicted in this chart is low.
The reason I bring it up here is to consider the fact that many structural changes start slowly based on the saying “first gradually, then suddenly.”
It took Google about three to four years to beat Yahoo, Altavista, and Lycos. Given that new technology gets to critical mass ever faster, I’m not surprised ChatGPT could do it faster (in theory).
ChatGPT’s traffic has already passed the No. 3 search engine, Bing (YouTube is second).
When you look at comments and posts on social media, more and more people report using ChatGPT instead of Google for various purposes, but that could be availability bias.
Image Credit: Kevin IndigOne point a lot of people miss when looking at the traffic comparison between ChatGPT and Bing is that they’re not the same, and yet this is a fair comparison.
ChatGPT is more than a search engine. People use it for all sorts of things. But that’s exactly the point: a search engine that looks like Google never stood a chance to compete with Google or Bing.
CGS is something new, and that’s why it stands a chance. So, when you see chatgpt.com passing bing.com, the critical argument is not that both do different things but that they’re used to accomplish the same goal.
After all, search is just a way to solve problems or achieve goals, not to search for the sake of searching.
To clarify, I don’t think Google or Alphabet as a company is at risk of dying. I do think CGS has a chance to capture significant market share, and too many people underestimate how fast this can go.
Referral Traffic Skyrockets
ChatGPT’s outgoing referral traffic is skyrocketing (Image Credit: Kevin Indig)AI Search marks a new paradigm where users get a direct answer without having to browse websites. So, how should companies think about pivoting their strategy?
Here’s what I’m telling my clients when they ask me whether they should pivot their SEO roadmap: For now, no. Reserve 10 to 20% of capacity to establish visibility in AI Search and for experimentation.
Look for signal: If you’re hesitant to invest more in AI Search right now, at least monitor traffic to and from ChatGPT. Base your decision on how long ChatGPT can keep its current traffic trend up.
Establishing visibility: This referral dashboard from Circulate Company is nice for monitoring referral visitors.
With a number of tweaks, you possibly can monitor conversions in GA4 as properly. You must also monitor web site crawls from LLMs and your efficiency on Bing.
Then, experiment with content material tweaks to enhance your AI Search visibility. Maintain investing in conventional search engine optimization as a result of it types the premise of AI Search and solutions.
Place a guess: The large query in that is whether or not you’re prepared to take a guess or play it protected.
Being a first-mover to search engine optimization had large advantages because the incumbents have a tendency to remain incumbents, primarily brought on by robust backlink profiles, strong consumer indicators, and model familiarity.
For now, ChatGPT makes use of Bing search outcomes to floor and weigh solutions, which suggests websites with robust visibility on Bing even have a excessive likelihood of being very seen in CGS.
Nevertheless, there’s a likelihood that utilizing Seek for RAG (grounding) is only a jumping-off level till AI Search platforms have gathered sufficient of their information (queries and consumer habits).
Early on this transition interval, not a lot adjustments. Content material that ranks properly in conventional search engines like google and yahoo, particularly Bing, will get the next weighting in CGS, which suggests conventional search engine optimization has a big effect on visibility in AI Search.
AI Chatbot referral visitors is skyrocketing, and ChatGPT’s new search functionality might speed up that progress much more.
Outgoing referral visitors from chatgpt.com elevated massively in August and September, in accordance with Similarweb.
Picture Credit score: Kevin IndigNoticeable call-outs:
- YouTube’s referral visitors elevated from .17% in July to three.9% in September.
- Bing grew from 0% in April to 1.8% in September.
- Amazon grew from 0% in July to 1.1% in September.
If referral visitors retains rising on the identical fee, it’ll get fascinating within the subsequent six to 12 months. It’s not simply the quantity but additionally the standard of visitors.
Folks use longer and extra complicated questions after they have interaction with AI solutions, in accordance with Sundar Pichai. Size is a technique to be extra particular.
Longer questions enable search engines like google and yahoo, LLMs, and entrepreneurs to raised perceive and serve customers what they need.
Based mostly on conversations and observations, referral visitors from AI chatbots isn’t constantly increased than search visitors in each case, however in most.
Trying Ahead
I’m leaving you with two fascinating questions:
1. Is it a coincidence that ChatGPT Search got here out three days after Apple Intelligence launched publicly?
Apple launched Apple Intelligence, which makes use of ChatGPT in sure conditions:
Apple is integrating ChatGPT access into experiences within iOS 18, iPadOS 18, and macOS Sequoia, allowing users to access its expertise — as well as its image- and document-understanding capabilities — without needing to jump between tools. Siri can tap into ChatGPT’s expertise when helpful.
Users are asked before any questions are sent to ChatGPT, along with any documents or photos, and Siri then presents the answer directly.
Additionally, ChatGPT will be available in Apple’s systemwide Writing Tools, which help users generate content for anything they are writing about. With Compose, users can also access ChatGPT image tools to generate images in a wide variety of styles to complement what they are writing.
We also know how valuable Google’s exclusive search deal with Apple is.
From Monopoly:
Apple’s impression on Google Search is huge. The courtroom paperwork reveal that 28% of Google searches (US) come from Safari and make up 56% of search quantity. Take into account that Apple sees 10 billion searches per week throughout all of its units, with 8 billion taking place on Safari and a pair of billion from Siri and Highlight.
“Google receives solely 7.6% of all queries on Apple units by means of user-downloaded Chrome” and “10% of its searches on Apple units by means of the Google Search App (GSA).” Google would take an enormous hit with out the unique settlement with Apple.
Since Search is a part of ChatGPT, any API request might set off the brand new Search characteristic.
Because of this, ChatGPT has a direct line to searches and actions on Apple units every time Apple Intelligence makes use of ChatGPT. Is that integration the brand new model of Google’s cope with Apple?
I speculated that OpenAI might work on a browser in Search GPT:
If the primary profit or Search GPT for OpenAI is a income stream and entry to extra consumer information, the subsequent logical step for OpenAI is to construct a (AI-powered) browser.
Browser information is extremely useful for understanding consumer habits, personalization and LLM coaching. Better of all, it’s app-agnostic, so OpenAI might be taught from customers even after they use Perplexity or Google.
We’ve seen the ability of browser information within the Google lawsuit, the place it turned out Google relied on Chrome information all alongside for rating. The one layer that’s extra highly effective is the working system and system layer.
OpenAI appears to be very conscious of the significance of being the default once we take a look at how onerous it pushes its Chrome extension, which adjustments the default browser search engine to ChatGPT.
hey i’m actually sorry to maintain hyping our personal product however you actually ought to get chatgpt plus and set up the chrome extension for search
i’m cheerfully the primary to confess once we ship one thing that isn’t excellent, however this time it’s…actually good
— Sam Altman (@sama) November 1, 2024
2. Because it’s doubtless that extra customers don’t browse the net however get solutions from ChatGPT, Gemini, Perplexity, and many others. instantly, will the open net grow to be a spot primarily for bots as a substitute of people? And the way would that change the aim and look of internet sites?
Featured Picture: Paulo Bobita/Search Engine Journal
