Google CEO Sundar Pichai lastly took motion and made important management modifications.
Prabhakar Raghavan, who ran Google Search, Adverts, Commerce, Geo, Assistant, and Funds, now reviews to Pichai as Chief Technologist and arms the Search reins over to Nick Fox.
Pichai introduced, “He’ll return to his pc science roots and tackle the position of Chief Technologist,” which is Latin for “He tousled, so we’re giving him a task that saves face however has no direct affect on our core enterprise.”
This transfer is a demotion for Raghavan, almost definitely as the results of an extended collection of fumbles throughout Search and AI.
Until for private causes, who would voluntarily step away from Google’s most necessary place to “return to their roots”? It doesn’t monitor.
The Raghavan period marks one of many hardest durations for Google, forsaking 5 areas of wrestle:
Monopoly
Google’s inventory dropped 14% since its all-time excessive on July 10, largely as a result of the DOJ revealed that it will take aggressive motion in opposition to Google.
After it was initially assumed that the DOJ sought to forestall Google from making unique offers with distributors like Apple, a brand new attainable final result floating round is to interrupt Google up by detaching Chrome, the Play Retailer, and Android:
Behavioral and structural treatments that may forestall Google from utilizing merchandise comparable to Chrome, Play, and Android to benefit Google search and Google search-related merchandise and options.
The DOJ even considers forcing Google to share rank data with competitors:
Barring Google from collecting sensitive user data, requiring it to make search results and indexes available to rivals, letting websites opt out of their content being used to train AI products and making Google report to a “court-appointed technical committee” are also on the table.
Realistically, the chances of these remedies actually coming into effect are low:
- It will take years for the court and Google to go through several hoops of appeal.
- There’s even a chance that a Trump presidency would veto aggressive remedies.
- Precedents like the case against Microsoft show that the actual remedies are not as severe (Microsoft was ruled to split into two companies but found a settlement).
However, the reputation damage from exposed emails and statements during the lawsuits and bad press marks a turnaround from Google’s polished image.
And, there is a chance that the DOJ will follow through, which could weaken Google’s position in Search.
Search
Search has been heading in the wrong direction. Raghavan’s legacy is too many Reddit results, too many ads, unhelpful results, and cluttered SERPs.
![Google search for [is google going downhill]](https://www.searchenginejournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/google-search-99.jpg)
Image Credit: Kevin IndigIn Free Content, I wrote a few examine from Germany that confirmed how laborious it’s for Google to get spammy outcomes out of search outcomes.
Google’s Useful Content material Replace sought to mitigate overoptimized search outcomes however triggered a lot collateral harm that the business revolted in opposition to Google till it launched an replace to the algorithm that particularly aimed to reestablish the search visibility for small and impartial websites.
Nonetheless, the impact was a lot smaller than anticipated, with many affected websites solely regaining a fraction of their misplaced visitors.
An underlying problem with search results quality is the unclear direction or algorithm updates and untransparent and fuzzy guidance of “creating helpful content.”
In that same vein, it also became clear in 2024 that Google reacted to bad press and punished sites like Causal or Forbes, which were called out publicly for questionable practices.
Lars Lofgren uncovered a company within Forbes that also seems to create content on other sites and drives millions in revenue. Shortly after, Google seems to have taken at least some action against the site.
Google’s reactions show how important reputation is for the company.
Brand might be Google’s biggest moat, maybe even bigger than all the data it captures, as we can see at the fact of Google not losing market share in Europe after smartphone manufacturers were forced to show users choice screens for browsers and search engines.
From 2 Internets:
Nonetheless, most customers nonetheless select Google regardless of randomized decisions for different search engines like google and yahoo for the reason that search engine market share distribution within the EU stays unchanged.
AI
Synthetic intelligence terraforms the tech world. Regardless of Google having invented most elements of the engine, it’s not driving the automotive. OpenAI is.
In keeping with StatCounter, Google’s market share dropped to 90% for the primary time for the reason that drop to 88% in 2013. The drop could possibly be the results of many causes, and it may revert.
Nonetheless, it may additionally mark a shift from Search to generative AI. I don’t see Google freely giving market share to Bing or DuckDuckGo however ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Microsoft Copilot.
Picture Credit score: Kevin IndigWhereas Google maintains a 90% market share in Search, it doesn’t lead out there of the long run: Gen AI.
Gemini was presupposed to be Google’s horse within the AI race, however its market share is flattening whereas Claude and Perplexity are gaining floor – quick.
OpenAI is at present successful the Gen AI competitors by visitors (Picture Credit score: Kevin Indig)
Taking Chat GPT out of the image, we will see that Gemini is stagnating (Picture Credit score: Kevin Indig)In 2024, Perplexity answered as many queries per thirty days because it did in the entire yr of 2023. The quantity remains to be small in comparison with Google, however the pattern is rising.
A collection of painful fumbles – from numerous Nazi photos to pretend demo movies and misinformation – mark Google’s chase to maintain up with the competitors.
From The Big Disconnect:
Then there are fumbled AI product launches. Google’s first response to ChatGPT’s gorgeous success was a shocking failure. The introduction of Bard in February 2023 price Alphabet $100 billion in market worth as a consequence of false details within the announcement.
In December 2023, a powerful demo of Gemini was a PR catastrophe when it turned out to be pretend.
In March 2024, Alphabet’s shares dropped by -5% when it turned out Gemini delivered closely biased and obscure historic photos.
Google needs to get AI proper so badly that it’s keen to chop corners. Not one thing you’d anticipate from the corporate that invented the underlying LLM know-how (Transformers) within the first place.
Former CEO Eric Schmidt’s opinion about the reason for Google’s struggles didn’t assist the scenario:
“Google determined that work life steadiness and going house early and dealing from house was extra necessary than successful. And the rationale startups work is as a result of the individuals work like hell.”
Google’s AI Overviews are the antithesis of the traditional search mannequin. Early referral visitors knowledge from gen AI like ChatGPT, Gemini, and Perplexity exhibits a tiny quantity of customers clicking by way of to websites.
If that’s any indication of what we will anticipate from AI Overviews, Google is popping from a click on distributor to an engagement platform.
Promoting
The large query for Google shareholders is how effectively the corporate can navigate promoting within the new LLM search world.
Adverts will be complementary to go looking outcomes. However, when customers get the reply immediately, sponsored outcomes distract from the expertise. The previous advert format won’t match the brand new mildew. Google has to determine this out however has not but delivered an progressive method.
AI transforms digital promoting throughout artistic + copy, matching/concentrating on, and spend optimization.
Nonetheless, with extra AI Overviews answering questions within the search outcomes, customers may want fewer queries to resolve issues general, shrinking the advert marketplace for Google.
Google is projected to hit an all-time low of lower than 50% of obtainable advert {dollars} subsequent yr. Sturdy challengers like Amazon and TikTok and long-term rivals like Meta are grabbing market share.
Google is projected to hit lower than 50% advert income market share in 2025 (source) (Picture Credit score: Kevin Indig)Google introduced a brand new procuring expertise with little to do with a traditional search engine.
The reimagined ecommerce expertise exhibits how laborious Google needs to compete with Amazon, which faces extra competitors from TikTok.
In consequence, TikTok is competing not solely with Google in search but in addition with ecommerce.
The focus on ecommerce indicates the opportunity for Google to make money from high-intent searches when users don’t need to click through to sites anymore for answers.
But Google wasn’t able to ever kick Amazon off the throne, leaving it exposed for commercial queries.
We can only hope that Prabhakar’s departure leads to a better Google Search. Nick Fox, who will succeed Raghavan, might not be the change agent we seek.
In an email thread with then Head of Search Ben Gomes from 2019, Fox seems open to taking on revenue goals but also not an advocate for it.
To Ben Gomes’ concern:
“…I think we are getting too involved with ads for the good of the product and company…”
Fox responds:
“Given that (a) we’re responsible for Search, (b) Search is the revenue engine of the company, and (c) revenue is weak, it seems like this is our new reality of our jobs?”
However, I question how important Fox is for the future of search anyway. The more important person is Demis Hassabis, founder and CEO of Deep Mind.
Every leadership change brings with it an opportunity to move to a better formation.
With Raghavan’s “promotion” come two important shifts: Gemini moving under Deep Mind, and Assistant moving to the devices team.
Hassabis is the person we need to watch because he now runs Gemini and with it, the quality and volume of AIO answers.
On the talking track, Hassabis stresses the need for responsible use of AI.
How that manifests remains to be seen.
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